Fears of renewed war in Ethiopia as TPLF-Eritrea alliance deepens

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) under – precisely the big faction under Debretsion Gebremichael – is reportedly  undertaking forced conscription, in the parts of the region under its firm control , as part of intensifying its preparation for war.

According to local sources, forces loyal to the Debretsion faction are rounding up youth and transporting them to training camps.  The development has reportedly triggered a massive exodus of youth from the region. 

Borkena was unable to independently verify the story. However, key opposition politicians like Gebru Asrat have been sounding alarm – in a series of interviews with Ethiopian Reporter and other local news outlets – that the TPLF is teaming up with what he calls “Shabia” ( a reference to the Eritrean government) to start a war. 

The war is with the Federal government. When Abiy Ahmed appeared at the Ethiopian Parliament earlier this month, he called upon members of the diplomatic community and religious leaders in the country to convince the TPLF not to start war. “If it started it would be worse than the last war, and it is pointless to call for the war to stop, ” he said. 

Last week, a group of religious leaders headed to the region in an attempt to approach TPLF leaders to convince them to not go to war. The meeting was held in closed door and the decision from the meeting is undisclosed. This week, Defense Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula made claims that the TPLF is armed with tanks and other heavy artillery which it was supposed to surrender to the government in accordance with  the Pretoria Agreement. The TPLF ignored the call from the defense chief. 

There have been clear signs of political and military alliance between the Debretsion led faction and Eritrean government. “Tsemdo” is the name given to the coalition. 

The border between Ethiopia and Eritrea is reportedly reopened along the Zalambessa Front as the renewed alliance between TPLF and the Eritrean government is deepening. 

There has also been tension within the region involving the two factions of the TPLF. Relations with the Ethiopian Federal government and Eritrean government is one of the causes for increasing tension between the rival factions. 

While the group under Getachew Reda, former president of the interim administration in the region, aligned with Abiy Ahmed led the Federal government, the Debretsion  led faction aligned with the Eritrean government. The difference within the TPLF started partly as a power struggle to take control of the region and partly as opposition to another round of war. 

There has been a growing opposition in Tigray to war in the region. The war fought between the TPLF and the Federal government between 2020 and 2022 is believed to have claimed over 600,000 lives.