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Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Why did Russia or Iran not help Assad?

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The fall of Damascus and the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad have unfolded with an unexpected lack of resistance, raising questions about the role of Assad’s allies and the dynamics of the conflict. Reports indicate that neither the Syrian army nor its citizens were willing to mount significant opposition to advancing rebel forces, leading to a near-bloodless regime change.

Unlike previous escalations in the Syrian conflict, this recent development was marked by the absence of major battles. Eyewitness accounts and video footage show Syrian soldiers abandoning their posts and walking away, rather than engaging in combat. Observers suggest this lack of resistance reflected widespread disillusionment with Assad’s leadership, with many choosing not to fight for his regime.

Assad’s longstanding allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—chose not to intervene significantly in the conflict. Despite initial bombing runs by Russia, military support ceased once it became evident that the Syrian government was not actively resisting the rebels. A similar sentiment was echoed by Iran, which reportedly discussed deploying troops but ultimately abandoned the idea. Hezbollah’s purported involvement was revealed to be overstated, with no actual troop deployments to aid Assad.

Additionally, militias from neighboring regions, initially expected to intervene, stopped short of entering Syrian territory. Their leaders publicly declared a policy of non-intervention, stating that there was no justification for involvement in the absence of an active conflict.

Rebels advancing into Damascus encountered minimal resistance, with Syrian forces opting to surrender rather than engage in combat. Analysts attribute this to a combination of war fatigue and a growing desire among Syrians for political change. As a result, the transition of power occurred with minimal violence, a stark contrast to earlier phases of the civil war.

Syrian and Russian Fighter Jets Strike Areas Held by Rebel Forces
Syrian and Russian Fighter Jets Strike Areas Held by Rebel Forces

The decision by Assad’s allies to abstain from direct involvement has been interpreted as a recognition of the Syrian people’s will. By refraining from escalating the conflict, these nations avoided prolonging the suffering of a war-weary population. While the outcome marks a significant shift in Syria’s political landscape, questions remain about the nation’s future stability and governance.

As Syria moves forward, the hope is that the choice to avoid further bloodshed was the right one. The onus now lies on the country’s new leadership to chart a path toward peace and reconciliation, reflecting the aspirations of its citizens who opted to remove Assad without a fight. Congratulations are tempered with cautious optimism for what lies ahead.

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