After deploying his forces to Uvira, Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye has now ordered an offensive against the M23 Movement in South Kivu. But why take such a risk? What does he hope to gain?
The situation in the region is evolving rapidly. DRC President Félix Tshisekedi’s political coalition is weakening, and foreign mercenaries have been expelled. The regional military mission, SAMIDRC, is collapsing, with Malawian and Tanzanian forces no longer participating. Even Tshisekedi appears to be reassessing his reliance on Burundian forces and local militias like Wazalendo.
Faced with mounting pressure, Tshisekedi has pivoted towards diplomacy, reportedly offering mineral deals to powerful nations in exchange for their support against M23. This shift has frustrated Ndayishimiye, whose military intervention in eastern DRC had become a crucial financial and strategic foothold. With Tshisekedi seeking alternatives, Burundi’s top general, Prime Niyongabo (Gen. Neva), risks being sidelined.
Adding to Ndayishimiye’s concerns is the M23’s continued advance towards Burundi’s border, raising fears of a direct security threat. In response, he has set his sights on recapturing Kavumu Airport, believing this move will restore his influence with Tshisekedi.
However, a significant challenge remains—Burundian troops reportedly lack the enthusiasm for such a high-risk operation. Previous encounters with M23 have demonstrated the rebel group’s military strength, and another costly battle could be devastating for Burundi’s forces.
By pushing ahead with this offensive instead of honoring the ceasefire, Ndayishimiye is treading a dangerous path. M23 commander Sultani Makenga and his seasoned fighters have repeatedly demonstrated their resilience and are unlikely to back down. If the offensive proceeds, Burundi’s forces could face severe losses, potentially exacerbating instability both in the DRC and back home in Burundi.
